A Few Notes

I've been chewing over an Ed Wade bullpen article for a week, but have not got around to finishing it. Along with work, I've been consumed with the Ashes over the past week, so forgiveness for that.

The Astros have avoided arbitration with Humberto Quintero, paying him $1m, so he will be back next season, with his nothing bat, but good defence behind the plate. He will probably serve as Brett Myers personal catcher, while also giving Castro the odd day off if he needs it. Myers had a 2.68 ERA with Q behind the plate in 2010. As Astros County pointed out, if Myers can pick up 30 quality starts, it is $1m well spent.

Ed Wade also cleared Tim Byrdak and Gustavo Chacin from the roster, so we are looking for two bullpen guys, and at least one of them needs to be lefty.

Lots of stuff about the Astros possibly looking to sign Wandy Rodriguez to a contract extension, but I think in the last half hour, there are reports that run contrary to this, saying Wade and co. are not actively engaged in anything at the moment.

And so we've started the countdown to the HOF class of 2011. Bagwell deserves to be there, and I'm making it my mission to get him there. Alyson Footer makes some excellent points, and Mr. Remington writes a pretty limp piece for Yahoo. I've already made my feelings clear on the subject, so I point you to my TCB piece a few months ago, if you missed it. If you agree or disagree add #bestbattingstance tag to any twitter comment (both sides are welcomed).

Options in left field

Edmonds celebrates after his 2-run blast off Miceli (it still hurts)

You aren't reading my pieces are you Mr. Levine? Anyway, yesterday I talked about the Astros need for something better in left field. Last month Brian McTaggart suggested the Astros had enough in house options should Brad Mills choose to put Lee at first base, with Jason Bourgeois, Brian Bogusevic or Jason Michaels available to play left field. I'd rather have backup.

I'll quickly rundown the options Levine offers. Garret Anderson, Rick Ankiel, Carl Crawford, Jonny Damon, Jim Edmonds, Willie Harris (this is the first part of his list, as you will note they are in alphabetical order).

Suggesting Jim Edmonds would be good to have on our club might have caused Timmy to throw up, and I know there is a lot of past history there, and he did not manage to play a lot in 2010, but I would not pass up the opportunity. Whether we have need of him is another question. Levine suggests that he is only a centre fielder, but I wonder if he would be willing to switch.

Another Astros killer over the years has been Scott Podsednik, who would be more of a fit for the Astros. Another prospect that seems to offend Timmy, as he has tweeted back: Oh my....I'm really rooting for Wallace now. Live and let live I say, or If you can't beat them, join them.

Although his career numbers up to this point might be bad, and there is a very good reason why he was released Melky Cabrera might be worth a punt.

Austin Kearns might be a reasonable pickup.  Mainly I'm looking at that 10% BB rate in 2010, which is pretty steady with his 11.3 career percentage. Although you have to balance that out with a pretty amazingly high strikeout rate over his entire career. Even so, he's an average defender, and will get on base enough to make him worthwhile in the lineup.

Otherwise, unless we make a trade, there really is not anything I would fall over to get. There is a lot of garbage, like Gary Matthews Jr. finishing a horrendous 5 year $50m contract given to him by the Angels, after a 'breakout' season in Arlington.

Meanwhile it seems that if Tampa Bay does not release Jason Bartlett, they will be at least shopping him, although I've just noticed that his UZR (ultimate zone rating) was -10.4 in 2010.

Other than that not much else on the horizon, I'm going to be struggling for content over December.

Ed Wade, whatcha you gonna do?

Two names I forgot when looking at who the Astros might acquire, Zack Duke and Brandon McCarthy. For the first, you might reasonably assume that someone who is not good enough for the Pirates is not good enough for anyone. Duke has been a bit of a bust since his impressive debut in 2005, and some of that might be to do with the fact that Jim Tracy made him clock up to 215 innings in 2006, his first full season (although the reason he's been canned is that the Pirates were doing some clean sweeping of the 40-man roster, prior to the Rule V draft). They have 10 days to trade away Duke, before he becomes a non-tendered free agent.

The second, (h/t to Astros County), has been linked with the Astros over the past day or two. He did not pitch in the majors in 2010 with the Rangers, but pitched relatively well at AAA (Oklahoma as it happens, our new affiliate). However, you have to wonder whether he is finished after a shoulder stress fracture.

Both are long-shots, and are very high risk, but low cost pickups, but if you want to keep some solidity in that rotation, these options are really no better than Figueroa. Is that you, Jordan Lyles trying to catch my attention in the corner. No. It is not your time yet. Spend 2011 in Oklahoma (man I really need to learn how to spell that correctly, who would have thought an American state would be so hard to spell, I keep starting it Oak..., Oak.., Oak...), and get even better. Like Jason Hirsh in 2006 would do nicely.

While Wade decides what he wants in the rotation, and hopefully he brings Brad Arnsberg into these discussions, the next order of business is scoping around for someone to play a bit of left field if they can find someone, since the brains trust seem set on giving Lee quite a bit, if not all the time at first base. I might expand on the first base situation in the next few days, and while I said a while back I would have liked to see the Astros go and get a veteran catcher instead of Quintero, the failed Pudge Rodriguez episode might put management off that, but I still think left field cover will be needed, especially because I am not sold on Jason Michaels getting too much playing time. While he came up big in half a dozen situations over the season, his numbers are not fantastic (they are average nothing more, nothing less), and if we can get someone, like we got Mark Loretta a few years back, I would like to see Wade pull the trigger on a deal.

Who will be our fifth starter?

Is this our fifth starter or can Wade find something better?

Now that Wade has found a shortstop, one of the big question marks has been answered. But now that he has gotten rid of Paulino it remains to be seen who will be our fifth starter in his place, and what Brad Mills will do at first base. I assumed when the Astros kept onto Nelson Figueroa, I assumed he was just there as coverage, since Norris and Paulino both got injured during 2010. He might still be coverage. I really do not know what Wade is intending to do.

I've heard one or two people saying that perhaps Wade can find another starter in the free agency market like Brett Myers, someone whose value is low and is looking to rebound.  Myers was a great pickup, but I don't think even Wade could imagine he would turn out so well. Personally I do not see anyone of Myers' potential on the market this year.

There are ex-Rangers castoffs Vincente Padilla and Kevin Milwood. Ex-Brewers Doug Davis and Dave Bush. Rich Harden, Aaron Harang, Jon Garland, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, Javier Vasquez, Brandon Webb, Chris Young, Dontrelle Willis, Erik Bedard. And apart from Cliff Lee, the only other pitcher on slate is Carl Pavano. He should be looking 3 years from someone.

The first category, the aged veterans. Milwood has now finished the 5-year $60m contract Scott Boras conned the Rangers into giving him, Padilla did fairly well in limited time with the Dodgers in 2010, but they are 35 and 32 respectively. Garland was a good pickup for the Padres, but he declined his end of the option, and must be looking for something long-term. I'm really surprised Garland has been so durable, considering he debuted at 20, and has thrown 200 innings or close nearly every year.  Harang, after a long tenure with the Reds seems to be on a downward slide. Harden has still not reached 200 innings pitched in a season and has bounced around a lot since leaving Oakland. Davis and Bush are pretty lacking in the talent department.

The second list is made up of the injury prone. Penny meanwhile has had a few scrappy years after back-to-back all-star appearances in 2006 and 2007. Sheets was a $10m injury punt by Billy Beane that did not come off. Webb, Young and Willis were all great pitchers before injuries etc. etc., but it is unknown whether they can even be major league pitchers ever again. Bedard has been a major flop ever since Seattle picked him up from Baltimore.

So after that what are we left with? Javier Vazquez? He's a veritable innings eater, and he's coming off a bad/average season in New York. He'll be 35 next season, but he may bristle at the idea of taking a paycut, since he earned $10m+ over the last three years. His strikeout to walk ratio went from a very good 5.41 in Atlanta in 2009 to 1.86 in the Bronx. He has also given up a lot of home runs over his entire career, not a good fit for Minute Maid Park.

Kevin Correia is on the market after being released by the Padres. I remember when the Giants were waiting for Correia to come through and join Cain as one of their two young aces on the staff. It never worked out for KC in SF but he did have a decent 2009 with the Padres, before a pretty awful 2010.

And I'm not even going to entertain the thought of Jeff Francis. I've seen that movie before, and the ending was rubbish (nice one Purpura).

Still, the rotation, with the four of Myers, Rodriguez, Happ and Norris, while it does not grab you as sparkly and exciting is at least solid. No more Russ Ortiz's, Woody Williams' or Brian Moehler (hopefully).

Astros' Fans: We've Been Played

I'm in 'Freemasons Run the Country' territory here

The most startling revelation of this week was the suggestion that Drayton McLane's efforts to cut payroll from the Astros roster over the past season or so was motivated by his need to sell the team for a good price.

After all, didn't McLane admit that he was close to selling the franchise to Jim Crane in 2008? You could speculate, but I think the major stumbling block must have been the price. It is always the price. While Forbes seems to value the Astros' franchise at $450m, for some reason Drayton wants $700m for his baby. If he truly cares for it at all, because it won't win for him.

Here's the scenario as I see it, Drayton hired Ed Wade at the tail end of 2007 with the intention of giving the Astros a last twirl of the dice before giving it up and selling the franchise. We all know what happened next, Wade pretty much created an entirely different team from the one that had preceded it in 2007, changing almost the entire roster save Pence, Lee, Berkman, Oswalt and one or two others. When this 're-building' did not go to plan, Drayton slowly realised he would not see the Astros competitive again for a good half-decade. It was well and truly broken.

And so, he convinced us all he had seen the light, and without telling us so explicity, we all believed he had bought Ed Wade's proper re-building mantra. There would be no easy fixes this time, no magic bullet. All a smokescreen. He never believed a word of it. What he really told Wade was to cut the crap from the Astros payroll and maybe he could flog the Astros for closer to $700m rather than $450m. This wasn't re-building, but making the Astros look more presentable for the near future to any prospective buyers.

Did you wonder why Ed Wade went and got J.A. Happ and Brett Wallace as the return for Roy Oswalt? When most analysts were expecting Wade to demand prospects in the high A level (i.e. years away from the majors), he went and got two major league ready players. Drayton, all Drayton. Puppet master to the end. Prospects might have helped the Astros in the long-term, but not for McLane, who needed players to fill out the roster so he could sell it at his price.

So while the Rangers signed Barret Loux  for a bonus of $300,000 (if that figure is true, I'll be hopping mad), we traded Felipe Paulino for Clint Barmes, and you have to wonder whether this move is another power play in the McLane textbook.

Is it out of the realms of possibility that this entire stretch of two years has been a power-play to drive up the price of the franchise?

David's post isn't as bellicose as I'd like to see, but Justice is typical Justice, sucking up to a man he practically declared war on about two seasons ago, eulogising him via the grease gun. Expect an open letter on the topic of Justice's 'opinions' on McLane over the next few weeks.

Drayton says some stuff....and we listen (sort of)

First off let me mention one or two things that have happened to me on twitter. The first is that I seem to have inadvertently kick-started a fan led buyout of the Houston Astros (real or not). If anyone asks, the revolution started here. A buyout because Drayton McLane is selling the Astros. Who he's selling it to, how much of it he is selling it, when he is selling it, and how much he is selling it for, are still unanswered questions.

The second is my tongue in cheek comment about the new scoreboard at Minute Maid Park "man, I am psyched about this new scoreboard. Astros' 2011 season is going to rock." Then, get this, Daktronics, the people who are supposedly revamping this scoreboard re-post my comment as if I was being genuinely serious, and add "We love to see the excitement." Oh boy. This is either a well-executed troll on my part, or an even better one by Daktronics.

Anyway, back to Drayton. I really cannot be bothered cataloguing how Drayton has been good and bad for the franchise, because I see the debate as, on the whole, rather fruitless. The debate always ends the same way. A bloody mess with no real winners. All I admit to is that this is a move forward, although I would not like a guy such as Mark Cuban running the shots. We need someone who just wants to sit on the Astros, rather than acquiring it to think he can make money out of it quickly, or thinks he can win a WS instantly by pumping in some money. The $700m seems excessively high, but we will see as developments drag on.

I think it is the right time for Drayton to call it quits, but at least he has brought some form of stability. I am looking forward to Justice's Op Ed piece on this thing. Justice has switched his opinion on Drayton than I've had hot dinners. The one thing I did not particularly enjoy was the fawning and boot-licking Footer and Goff indulged in after the press conference, hardly dispassionate analysis on the guy who ultimately signs your pay cheque.

Clint Barmes is apparently a power bat

Stephen Goff of the Examiner, talking nonsense, and more nonsense. Clint Barmes is not a 'power bat' in any sense, and his 23 home runs in 2009 really do look like a misnomer. Almost all of his home runs over the past three seasons have been to left field, and if you think this automatically translates into success at Minute Maid Park, think again. Preston Wilson, hey how did that one work out? The fact that so many of Lee's home runs have been to left field has saved Carlos' numbers from looking even more ridiculously bad, while both Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane's careers were both if not totally then in part wrecked by a tendency to pull the ball too much, something opposing pitchers ruthlessly exploited by throwing everything on the outer third of the plate.

I really do not see how Goff is putting such a positive spin on the move labelling it 'win-win' even though he admits Barnes was a non-tender candidate. And then he mentions the possibility of acquiring Jeff Francis as if that would be a good thing. Seriously? That would be a second Jason Jennings just waiting to happen.

One major point. I don't disagree with us getting Clint Barmes. I think he is better than either Sanchez or Manzella, and he is at least a veteran, but he is only going to get worse, unless you cross your fingers and somehow hope he rebounds. And we're supposed to be rebuilding, not acquiring veterans left right and centre. I just do not like the fact that we have given up a good prospective pitcher in Paulino to get something that we might have got for free a month down the line.

The only explanation I can fathom is that for some reason Wade and co. were very low on Paulino's value and looked no further than his trip to the 60-day DL and his 1-9 record with a 5.11 ERA. His FIP and xFIP suggest that he was unlucky in 2010, and he only allowed four home runs all season in 90+ IP.

Meanwhile Barmes hardly sounds too enthused about joining the Astros (h/t to AC for the quote):

"I'll be honest with you, I was hoping to be a Rockie. I was wanting to try to work something out. But talking to Dan (O'Dowd), some other opportunities came up and it just seemed to be better for both sides. I'm excited about getting an opportunity to play shortstop and have a team interested in me. You're a little more valuable at shortstop than you are at second base. You're in control of the infield. There's that leadership role you have to take into account. I believe that's a good fit for me. That's where I've played most of my career and I've always looked at myself as a shortstop."

Wade barmy as he acquires Clint Barmes for Felipe Paulino

So much for the Astros acquiring anything signifcant at the shortstop position. At this point in his career, Clint Barmes, formerly of the Colorado Rockies, is a live body. He's 31 going on 32, put up decent power numbers for a middle infielder in 2008 and 2009, but had a rough 2010. I'd rather have him playing at short than Manzella or Sanchez, but this really is not a massive upgrade.

The point being made is that Barmes was probably going to be non-tendered, so what was the point of not waiting until they could have picked him up for nothing?

As for Paulino, this looks like the Astros cutting their losses, and freeing up a rotation spot. I love Paulino's raw stuff, e he was unlucky in 2010  and he pitched very well at times, others, not so well. Ultimately I see him doing well in Colorado, given the chance.

Barmes takes away a question mark from the shortstop position, but most of the aspects of this trade seems a bit silly. I'll put some more up on this tomorrow.

N.B. Now this also frees up another rotation spot. Whether Wade is going to put Figueroa in there, or he has plans to acquire someone else is questionable. If we got rid of Paulino so we could acquire Jeff Francis, I will be steamed. Or perhaps Wade wants Lyles in the rotation for 2011, which would compound an already dumb move. With Paulino gone, the emphasis moves to Bud Norris as the other young gun in the rotation behind Wandy, Myers and Happ.

Shortstop, still a concern for Wade

Basically we need a shortstop. Oh yes we do. Angel Sanchez and Tommy Manzella just don't cut it. Both are defensive replacements at best (and I looked at Sanchez's defensive numbers, which aren't great). His UZR/150 is -17.9 for 2010, something I did not expect, and baseball-reference, using his DPS has his defensive WAR for 2010 at -1.1.

Astros County is annoyed at being tricked by TMZ who posted a story saying Derek Jeter was interested in the Houston Astros, which basically boils down to Jeter commenting on what cap a cameraman is wearing. I found the episode quite funny, and have been jokingly suggesting that Wade should at least call Jeter and see if he's willing to come to Houston, and try to sell the team to Jeter.


For those who don't remember (and to be honest I don't because it was before my time), the Astros drafted Phil Nevin with their first pick in the 1992 draft, when Jeter went at 6 (I think).

Someone suggested Stephen Drew to me today, but I dismissed the possibility in September, as he is a Boras client, which is the only snag, because he would be a great pickup. There seems to be some cold war going on between El Diablo and Drayton McLane. But he would be as costly as Justin Upton, if not more so.

People do not seem too keen on any idea of trying to acquire Marco Scutaro from Boston, who have Jed Lowrie there to take over at any time, but I would not mind too much. He's not worth the pricetag, and he is 35, and probably declining, but he'll give you something.

What else? I know it has been floated around that we could try and grab someone with our Rule V pick and hope their ready for the majors. Jason Bartlett? Is he even available. Would the Twins be willing to part with J.J. Hardy?

UPDATE: Two days later and the Astros trade for Clint Barmes. Prophetic. Sort of.

Justin Upton and the ol' trade rumours

Justin Upton is apparently available 

I seem to be quoting Mr. Coleman an awful lot over the last few days. You want the Astros to shake it up a bit, how about trading for the Diamondbacks Justin Upton. My post yesterday might have bummed everyone out, as it had a very negative slant on it.

But what I was trying to say, and hopefully this got across, was that what Ed Wade is doing now, and continuing this approach will not make the Astros win. He has to do something different, and think outside the box, take a gamble, and hopes it pays off.

The Red Sox have shot down any rumours straight away, and the article quotes an NL source that says, "they want a ton for him." Reading Coleman, he says he would give up a ton for Upton. "He's Hunter Pence, but six years younger, and with a higher ceiling."

But remember folks. TANSTAAFL. There ain't no such thing as a free lunch. To acquire a player like Upton (a first overall draft pick in 2005) and just 22, it is going to hurt. It would hurt big time. Here's part of the scenario. You trade away Pence for prospects, and then flip what you can get to Arizona as the start of the package. And you think giving up Pence would be bad, you would have to probably send both Bud Norris, and, wait for it, Jordan Lyles, and more. That's giving up the face of the franchise (Pence) now that Berkman and Oswalt are gone, and then trading the farm system's great white hope in one go. Unpalatable for Drayton McLane surely. And a high asking price. And the Diamondbacks have only said they'll listen to offers. Their not actively shopping him. Upton is not on megabucks (6 years $50m 2010-2015), but they will want enough to start repairing their ballclub after a 65-97 season in 2010. 

For what it is worth, here is David Cameron from FanGraphs and his take on Justin Upton's future worth. Is he worth all that? The guy's 23 in August, and has the scope to get much much better. It depends how much you value Pence, and I love the guy and his energy, but he is not, and never will be a cornerstone. He's a good number 2 or number 6 bat, but he does not really belong in the heart of the lineup. He doesn't have the right approach (high OBP), and his power while good, is not that of an elite power hitter. Whereas Upton could be a star, he's got plus defense, good on base skills, speed, power, the lot.

Heck why stop at one. Give the Rays a ring and see how much B. J. will cost. Two Upton's in the outfield, either side of Bourn.

But don't get too excited because Ed Wade seems to be looking at......Jeff Francis. Oh goody. That'll solve all our problems.

The Future: It's Coming

The Astros' future obviously won't be this bad

I remember everyone saying that the Astros were at a crossroads as a franchise. They said it again and again, and I really got fed up of reading it. Most importantly people seem to agree that the Astros are going in the right direction.

I was reading yesterday's piece by David Coleman, and the conclusions I drew from the article made me feel very down about the Astros' future. As he sort of implies, Ed Wade seems to be caught in between strategies.

If he's not careful Houston will find themselves not winning now, and not winning later. This is why many people are clamouring for big name free agent signings. Because as mediocre as our core of players is, they are reaching their peaks around now, and there is not a whole lot to replace them until 2014/2015.

Without a decent core is Ed Wade seriously expecting this team to win in the mid-term? Myers' contract runs out in 2013 (that's an option year), Wandy is a free agent after the 2011 season, and already players like Happ, Bourn, Pence, Johnson, Norris and Paulino are in their late 20s.
In about four or five seasons this 'core' will be past their peaks, if not gone. That's a window of 2011-2014 to win with this current crop of players. Yet, the reinforcements coming in from the minors will not give them any more real core players, rather they will be bit part players (in my view with the exception of Lyles, if handled properly).

If you look at our farm, we have had three decent drafts, but the real gems were from the 2010 draft, and hence are still lightyears from the majors. The Astros highest ceiling prospects, guys like Delino DeShields, Ariel Ovando, Foltynewicz and Velasquez will not get to the majors until way into the 2010s.

And while guys like Jon Gaston, J.D. Martinez and co. could make an impact, I do not see it being too large. This is why I've been harping on about Jason Castro and Brett Wallace. For the Astros to be successful in the next 3/4 years they need to come up money. Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino too. If they don't then they are doomed. Unless Wade pulls the trigger and goes 'win now' mad, with Drayton in the back seat shouting.

And then we get to Chip Bailey's piece from last week (hat tip to Clack for the link), and he proclaims 'Astros can't afford a third straight losing season.' For some reason the Chronicle seems to work as a magnet for most of the bat-shit insane Astros fans, those who seems to believe Wade could swing a deal for Dan Uggla by a package involving Wesley Wright and Jeff Keppinger.

"If the Astros finish with another losing season in 2011, it will be a step backward in the rebuilding programme." WRONG. You're wrong. Wrong. I think this somehow stems from a basic misconception about rebuilding in general, and the fact that Richard Justice has been carping on for months about the Astros giving up winning in 2010 so that they can win in 2012, and everyone has seemingly bought his imaginary and arbitrary timetable for winning, as if it is some parabola or curve of winning set in stone by the Oswalt trade.

And we get back onto Drayton McLane. He's only 74 so he might be owner for another decade or more. But there were early rumblings that the Astros might be solved. But it is his pet project, and he desperately wants to see his team at the top. Now I'm not going to chronicle every single thing he has done right and wrong as an owner, or weigh in on what I think of his ownership, but when people say he has finally bought in to Ed Wade's philosophy of rebuilding, I think people are still missing the point.

Because Wade did not blow up the team last year. Nowhere close. He cashed in on two assets and replaced them with cheaper, controlled players. He did more smashing up in 2007/8, where he went out and created what looked like a brand new team, but then he was focused on winning now. If Wade wants to fully smash up the team fire sale style, and build a contender in the long-term, he is being stopped by McLane who is anchoring this franchise by his belief that you can win now and win later, with a mediocre core of players and a farm system that has improved, but still ranks as one of the majors worst.

What Bailey seems to allude to is the fact that we rampaged through most of the second half of the season, but their 47-32 mid-season run (from June 23rd to September 20th) was built on starting pitching which could not be sustained over a long period of time. The Astros 3-9 finish proved that. Their offense is still brutal, and it is not a given that Myers and Rodriguez can replicate their mid-season form for a whole season.

Is there no third way between a total fire sale and going for broke with acquiring every free agent under the sun. If contract talks with Wandy Rodriguez stall this winter we might see a glimpse of it from Wade. If not, his managing operation is steering the wrong middle course, following no clear direction.

Heyman says Astros are players for Cliff Lee

Bill James' 2011 projections (and if they're true, we'll suck)

I'm just glancing through the fangraphs player pages, and its pretty ugly reading as far as the Astros go.

First the rotation:

	ERA	W-L	GS	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	IP
Myers	4.02	10-14	33	2.97	7.66	1.21	215
Rodriguez	3.71	12-11	31	2.84	8.04	0.96	206
Happ	4.28	6-10	25	4.15	7.87	1.13	143
Norris	4.52	8-13	30	4.53	8.95	0.96	187
Paulino	4.86	5-9	22	4.35	8.13	0.94	124
Figueroa	4.04	7-9	20	3.00	7.04	0.98	138

These predictions are very much out of whack with what I expect to happen in the 2011 season. Myers had a streak of 15 starts mid-season where he posted a 1.89 ERA and was truly fantastic. He like most other Astros' pitchers was great at keeping the ball in the park, and working around a lot of bases-on-balls. Wandy too, had a strong mid-season streak, posting a 2.02 ERA in the last 18 starts of his season, going nine starts allowing two runs or less.

I'm also confident Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino can make giant strides on the Brad Arnsberg baseball programme. Lets go back to HR/9, because if you look at 2010, Happ's was 0.82, Rodriguez's 0.74, Myers 0.82. Paulino was probably unlucky last season as his 5.11 ERA was hugely different from his 3.54 FIP.

Then the hitters:

	PA	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG%
Bourn	632	89	152	4	38	51	9.8	267	341	.349
Pence	660	87	174	26	87	16	7.4	.285	339	484
Lee	635	74	165	27	101	5	6.8	.279	.331	.473
Keppinger	546	60	147	6	51	3	8.2	.293	.354	.395
Johnson	530	59	145	18	59	3	4.5	.287	.320	.466
Castro	440	52	94	5	52	1	10.2	.238	.316	.319
Wallace	159	14	32	2	13	0	5.0	.222	.296	.319
Manzella	209	19	50	2	17	2	5.7	.254	.300	.345
Michaels	190	23	44	5	23	1	8.4	.253	.326	.397
Sanchez	291	31	71	1	31	3	6.9	.262	.315	.336
Quintero	192	14	45	3	18	0	3.6	.243	.278	.341

While there is some marginal improvement in general on base percentage and average, there is still not a lot of power there. The 18 home runs  credited to Johnson might be an understatement, but if he puts up those numbers, it will be a solid sophomore year for him. Still the Astros hit 108 home runs in 2010 and that was a dismal low.

Still, the projections show that in order to be anywhere near competitve in 2011, the Astros need much more than this table shows from Castro, Wallace and the shortstop position. TCB has been throwing out suggestions from left field, with Edgar Rentaria's name floated out there, along with a trade for Jose Reyes. While he may be a free agent after the upcoming season, it is doubtful the Mets would part with him unless they got something bumper bumper for him (hence David mentioning Hunter Pence). Rentaria is used to $10m a year salaries, and I doubt he would take the sort of paycheck $3m plus incentives that the Astros might offer him. He is also either 34/35 and has had injuries the last few seasons, hence the Giants dumping him. But we do need desperate help at shortstop, and maybe a veteran catcher.

Still it would be nice to see Lee rebound to the sorts of numbers put up there .280/.340/.470.